2026-08-03
EdgePicks - daily single picks
Today's football singles: model pricing against bookmaker odds, from 1X2 to handicaps and goal totals.
EdgePicks turns model probabilities and bookmaker odds into a clear shortlist of daily football singles: 1X2, handicaps, goal totals, correct scores and half-time markets. The page is built to support decisions, not to promise guaranteed outcomes. Corners and cards are not priced.
How are picks selected?
The model builds a goal distribution for each match from the teams' recent scoring form, separately for the first and second half. Every market is derived from that same distribution: 1X2, handicaps, goal totals (including team totals), both teams to score, correct scores and half-time/full-time. Corners and cards are not priced at all.
The model's own price is compared against the bookmaker's odds (Unibet, 1xBet, Pinnacle). A pick qualifies if the gap is large enough, and a separate guard rejects rows where the gap is implausibly large — such a gap is more often the model's error than the market's. At most one bet per match.
A human picks the final list. Nothing is published automatically: the page shows the selections that were deliberately chosen to be played. Stakes are fractional Kelly from the model probability, capped per bet and per coupon.
What this is not. Some markets are calibrated against realised results, most are not — on an uncalibrated line the stake is uncalibrated too. See the tracking page's ROI and CLV for how picks have actually performed. The daily count varies with how many matches are played and how many rows pass the guard.
Daily result
19/20Browse previous days
6Published runs from the last 15 days are available here. The newest successful batch is shown for each date.
Bookmaker mix
- 1xBet14
- Pinnacle4
- Unibet2
Top singles
20/20| # | Match | Time | Bookmaker | Pick | Odds | Prob | Stake ℹ | Result | Profit/loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parnu JK Vaprus U21 vs Levadia U19Estonia - Esiliiga B | 16:00 | Pinnacle | Total Goals FT · Under 5.25 | 1.43 | 90.9% | 2.18% | HALF_WIN | +4.7 |
| 2 | Železničar Pančevo vs Mladost LucaniSerbia - Super Liga | 19:00 | 1xBet | Total Goals H2 · Under 0.75 | 3.08 | 42.1% | 1.55% | WIN | +32.3 |
| 3 | Viimsi vs Tallinna KalevEstonia - Esiliiga A | 16:00 | 1xBet | Away Total Goals FT · Under 1.5 | 1.43 | 90.5% | 2.18% | LOSS | -21.8 |
| 4 | Hammarby Talang vs ArlandaSweden - Ettan - Norra | 17:30 | 1xBet | Total Goals H1 · Under 1.5 | 1.54 | 84.0% | 2.18% | WIN | +11.8 |
| 5 | Vestri vs GrottaIceland - 1. Deild | 14:00 | 1xBet | Home Total Goals H2 · Under 0.5 | 2.75 | 46.9% | 1.80% | WIN | +31.5 |
| 6 | SJK vs HJK HelsinkiFinland - Veikkausliiga | 16:00 | Unibet | HT/FT · X/X | 6.10 | 21.1% | 0.62% | LOSS | -6.2 |
| 7 | Paraguari AC vs Deportivo CapiataParaguay - Division Intermedia | 22:30 | 1xBet | Home Total Goals FT · Under 0.5 | 2.73 | 47.2% | 1.81% | LOSS | -18.1 |
| 8 | Auda vs Ogre UnitedLatvia - Virsliga | 15:00 | 1xBet | Home Total Goals H1 · Over 2 | 5.65 | 22.6% | 0.64% | - | - |
| 9 | Orebro SK vs IFK VarnamoSweden - Superettan | 17:05 | Unibet | Correct Score FT · 1-0 | 7.00 | 18.1% | 0.48% | LOSS | -4.8 |
| 10 | Ranheim vs HaugesundNorway - 1. Division | 17:00 | Pinnacle | Asian Handicap FT · 1 +0 | 2.92 | 43.1% | 1.47% | LOSS | -14.7 |
| 11 | Kimberley Mar del Plata vs Argentino Monte MaízArgentina - Torneo Federal A | 18:00 | 1xBet | Away Total Goals H2 · Over 1 | 6.80 | 18.2% | 0.45% | LOSS | -4.5 |
| 12 | Vasalund vs SollentunaSweden - Ettan - Norra | 17:00 | 1xBet | 1X2 H2 · X | 2.75 | 44.8% | 1.44% | WIN | +25.1 |
| 13 | Tukums II vs JDFS AlbertsLatvia - 1. Liga | 15:30 | 1xBet | Away Total Goals H1 · Under 0.5 | 2.97 | 41.3% | 1.26% | LOSS | -12.6 |
| 14 | VPS II vs Jaro 2Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko C | 15:00 | 1xBet | BTTS H1 · No | 1.45 | 80.2% | 2.18% | WIN | +9.8 |
| 15 | Transinvest 2 vs BabrungasLithuania - 1 Lyga | 15:00 | 1xBet | Correct Score H2 · 0-0 | 5.10 | 22.5% | 0.39% | LOSS | -3.9 |
| 16 | Defensor Sporting vs CerroUruguay - Primera División - Apertura | 22:00 | 1xBet | BTTS FT · Yes | 2.21 | 50.5% | 1.04% | WIN | +12.6 |
| 17 | HB Torshavn vs NSI RunavikFaroe-Islands - Meistaradeildin | 17:30 | Pinnacle | Asian Handicap H1 · 2 +0 | 1.94 | 57.1% | 1.24% | PUSH | +0.0 |
| 18 | Wexford vs Bray WanderersIreland - First Division | 16:00 | Pinnacle | 1X2 H1 · 1 | 3.34 | 32.7% | 0.43% | WIN | +10.0 |
| 19 | Kerry vs Cobh RamblersIreland - First Division | 16:00 | 1xBet | BTTS H2 · No | 1.32 | 79.0% | 1.47% | WIN | +4.7 |
| 20 | UCD vs Treaty UnitedIreland - First Division | 16:00 | 1xBet | Correct Score H1 · 0-0 | 3.08 | 33.7% | 0.20% | WIN | +4.3 |
ℹ Share of bankroll per bet: fractional Kelly from the model probability, capped per bet and per coupon. Kelly scales directly with the model probability, so on an uncalibrated line the stake is uncalibrated too. A dash means no bankroll was stored with the row.
All filtered picks
20| # | Match | Time | Bookmaker | Pick | Odds | Prob | Stake ℹ | Result | Profit/loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parnu JK Vaprus U21 vs Levadia U19Estonia - Esiliiga B | 16:00 | Pinnacle | Total Goals FT · Under 5.25 | 1.43 | 90.9% | 2.18% | HALF_WIN | +4.7 |
| 2 | Železničar Pančevo vs Mladost LucaniSerbia - Super Liga | 19:00 | 1xBet | Total Goals H2 · Under 0.75 | 3.08 | 42.1% | 1.55% | WIN | +32.3 |
| 3 | Viimsi vs Tallinna KalevEstonia - Esiliiga A | 16:00 | 1xBet | Away Total Goals FT · Under 1.5 | 1.43 | 90.5% | 2.18% | LOSS | -21.8 |
| 4 | Hammarby Talang vs ArlandaSweden - Ettan - Norra | 17:30 | 1xBet | Total Goals H1 · Under 1.5 | 1.54 | 84.0% | 2.18% | WIN | +11.8 |
| 5 | Vestri vs GrottaIceland - 1. Deild | 14:00 | 1xBet | Home Total Goals H2 · Under 0.5 | 2.75 | 46.9% | 1.80% | WIN | +31.5 |
| 6 | SJK vs HJK HelsinkiFinland - Veikkausliiga | 16:00 | Unibet | HT/FT · X/X | 6.10 | 21.1% | 0.62% | LOSS | -6.2 |
| 7 | Paraguari AC vs Deportivo CapiataParaguay - Division Intermedia | 22:30 | 1xBet | Home Total Goals FT · Under 0.5 | 2.73 | 47.2% | 1.81% | LOSS | -18.1 |
| 8 | Auda vs Ogre UnitedLatvia - Virsliga | 15:00 | 1xBet | Home Total Goals H1 · Over 2 | 5.65 | 22.6% | 0.64% | - | - |
| 9 | Orebro SK vs IFK VarnamoSweden - Superettan | 17:05 | Unibet | Correct Score FT · 1-0 | 7.00 | 18.1% | 0.48% | LOSS | -4.8 |
| 10 | Ranheim vs HaugesundNorway - 1. Division | 17:00 | Pinnacle | Asian Handicap FT · 1 +0 | 2.92 | 43.1% | 1.47% | LOSS | -14.7 |
| 11 | Kimberley Mar del Plata vs Argentino Monte MaízArgentina - Torneo Federal A | 18:00 | 1xBet | Away Total Goals H2 · Over 1 | 6.80 | 18.2% | 0.45% | LOSS | -4.5 |
| 12 | Vasalund vs SollentunaSweden - Ettan - Norra | 17:00 | 1xBet | 1X2 H2 · X | 2.75 | 44.8% | 1.44% | WIN | +25.1 |
| 13 | Tukums II vs JDFS AlbertsLatvia - 1. Liga | 15:30 | 1xBet | Away Total Goals H1 · Under 0.5 | 2.97 | 41.3% | 1.26% | LOSS | -12.6 |
| 14 | VPS II vs Jaro 2Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko C | 15:00 | 1xBet | BTTS H1 · No | 1.45 | 80.2% | 2.18% | WIN | +9.8 |
| 15 | Transinvest 2 vs BabrungasLithuania - 1 Lyga | 15:00 | 1xBet | Correct Score H2 · 0-0 | 5.10 | 22.5% | 0.39% | LOSS | -3.9 |
| 16 | Defensor Sporting vs CerroUruguay - Primera División - Apertura | 22:00 | 1xBet | BTTS FT · Yes | 2.21 | 50.5% | 1.04% | WIN | +12.6 |
| 17 | HB Torshavn vs NSI RunavikFaroe-Islands - Meistaradeildin | 17:30 | Pinnacle | Asian Handicap H1 · 2 +0 | 1.94 | 57.1% | 1.24% | PUSH | +0.0 |
| 18 | Wexford vs Bray WanderersIreland - First Division | 16:00 | Pinnacle | 1X2 H1 · 1 | 3.34 | 32.7% | 0.43% | WIN | +10.0 |
| 19 | Kerry vs Cobh RamblersIreland - First Division | 16:00 | 1xBet | BTTS H2 · No | 1.32 | 79.0% | 1.47% | WIN | +4.7 |
| 20 | UCD vs Treaty UnitedIreland - First Division | 16:00 | 1xBet | Correct Score H1 · 0-0 | 3.08 | 33.7% | 0.20% | WIN | +4.3 |
ℹ Share of bankroll per bet: fractional Kelly from the model probability, capped per bet and per coupon. Kelly scales directly with the model probability, so on an uncalibrated line the stake is uncalibrated too. A dash means no bankroll was stored with the row.
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Responsible Betting
Betting involves financial risk. Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes, and historical performance does not guarantee future returns. Only stake money you can afford to lose.