EdgePicks

2026-08-09

EdgePicks - daily single picks

Today's football singles: model pricing against bookmaker odds, from 1X2 to handicaps and goal totals.

Data first, hype later.

EdgePicks turns model probabilities and bookmaker odds into a clear shortlist of daily football singles: 1X2, handicaps, goal totals, correct scores and half-time markets. The page is built to support decisions, not to promise guaranteed outcomes. Corners and cards are not priced.

Updated
2026-08-09 15:13
Source
valinnat_2026-08-09_1512.csv
Unique matches119
Passed filter119
How are picks selected?

The model builds a goal distribution for each match from the teams' recent scoring form, separately for the first and second half. Every market is derived from that same distribution: 1X2, handicaps, goal totals (including team totals), both teams to score, correct scores and half-time/full-time. Corners and cards are not priced at all.

The model's own price is compared against the bookmaker's odds (Unibet, 1xBet, Pinnacle). A pick qualifies if the gap is large enough, and a separate guard rejects rows where the gap is implausibly large — such a gap is more often the model's error than the market's. At most one bet per match.

A human picks the final list. Nothing is published automatically: the page shows the selections that were deliberately chosen to be played. Stakes are fractional Kelly from the model probability, capped per bet and per coupon.

What this is not. Some markets are calibrated against realised results, most are not — on an uncalibrated line the stake is uncalibrated too. See the tracking page's ROI and CLV for how picks have actually performed. The daily count varies with how many matches are played and how many rows pass the guard.

Browse previous days

6

Published runs from the last 15 days are available here. The newest successful batch is shown for each date.

Bookmaker mix

Top singles

20/119
#MatchTimeBookmakerPickOddsProbStake ℹ
1Rotor Volgograd vs ChelyabinskRussia - First League15:301xBetHome Total Goals FT · Over 23.5436.7%0.19%
2Baník Kalinovo vs Dolný KubínSlovakia - 3. liga - Center15:001xBetHome Total Goals FT · Under 1.52.3555.3%0.32%
3AO Itabaiana vs CaxiasBrazil - Serie C21:301xBetTotal Goals FT · Over 2.52.7447.4%0.27%
4PEC Zwolle vs AjaxNetherlands - Eredivisie12:30UnibetTotal Goals FT · Under 1.55.8022.4%0.10%
5Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie LubinPoland - Ekstraklasa12:45UnibetTotal Goals H1 · Under 11.8968.7%0.32%
6Union La Calera vs Colo ColoChile - Primera División21:301xBetCorrect Score H2 · 0-4100.001.3%0.01%
7NSI Runavik vs SkálaFaroe-Islands - Meistaradeildin16:15PinnacleTotal Goals FT · Under 3.51.6180.7%0.32%
8HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961Croatia - HNL19:00PinnacleAsian Handicap FT · 2 +0.53.0243.0%0.23%
9AS Jeunesse Esch vs Atert BissenLuxembourg - National Division17:001xBetTotal Goals FT · Under 0.510.6012.3%0.05%
10Sarpsborg 08 II vs BrumunddalNorway - 3. Division - Girone 616:001xBetHome Total Goals FT · Under 31.9965.3%0.32%
11Bokelj vs SutjeskaMontenegro - First League18:001xBetCorrect Score FT · 3-250.002.6%0.01%
12Lindo FF vs FittjaSweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand13:001xBetTotal Goals FT · Under 1.754.4928.9%0.14%
13Hammarby Talang vs FBK KarlstadSweden - Ettan - Norra14:001xBetTotal Goals FT · Under 41.3993.4%0.32%
14Stromsgodset vs EgersundNorway - 1. Division15:001xBetHome Total Goals FT · Under 31.5583.8%0.32%
15Super Nova vs FK LiepajaLatvia - Virsliga13:00Pinnacle1X2 H1 · 14.0032.5%0.16%
16Deportivo Garcilaso vs UCV MoqueguaPeru - Primera División18:001xBetCorrect Score FT · 0-09.6013.5%0.06%
17Sheriff Tiraspol vs Dacia-BuiucaniMoldova - Super Liga17:001xBetTotal Goals H2 · Under 1.751.7673.8%0.32%
18Brattvåg vs LyseklosterNorway - 2. Division - Group 113:301xBetAsian Handicap FT · 2 +0.254.3529.8%0.14%
19RB Bragantino vs CorinthiansBrazil - Serie A21:30UnibetTotal Goals FT · Under 2.251.8271.3%0.32%
20FC Levadia Tallinn vs Nõmme UnitedEstonia - Meistriliiga16:001xBetAsian Handicap H1 · 1 -2.56.5519.8%0.08%

ℹ Share of bankroll per bet: fractional Kelly from the model probability, capped per bet and per coupon. Kelly scales directly with the model probability, so on an uncalibrated line the stake is uncalibrated too. A dash means no bankroll was stored with the row.

All filtered picks

119
#MatchTimeBookmakerPickOddsProbStake ℹ
1Rotor Volgograd vs ChelyabinskRussia - First League15:301xBetHome Total Goals FT · Over 23.5436.7%0.19%
2Baník Kalinovo vs Dolný KubínSlovakia - 3. liga - Center15:001xBetHome Total Goals FT · Under 1.52.3555.3%0.32%
3AO Itabaiana vs CaxiasBrazil - Serie C21:301xBetTotal Goals FT · Over 2.52.7447.4%0.27%
4PEC Zwolle vs AjaxNetherlands - Eredivisie12:30UnibetTotal Goals FT · Under 1.55.8022.4%0.10%
5Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie LubinPoland - Ekstraklasa12:45UnibetTotal Goals H1 · Under 11.8968.7%0.32%
6Union La Calera vs Colo ColoChile - Primera División21:301xBetCorrect Score H2 · 0-4100.001.3%0.01%
7NSI Runavik vs SkálaFaroe-Islands - Meistaradeildin16:15PinnacleTotal Goals FT · Under 3.51.6180.7%0.32%
8HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961Croatia - HNL19:00PinnacleAsian Handicap FT · 2 +0.53.0243.0%0.23%
9AS Jeunesse Esch vs Atert BissenLuxembourg - National Division17:001xBetTotal Goals FT · Under 0.510.6012.3%0.05%
10Sarpsborg 08 II vs BrumunddalNorway - 3. Division - Girone 616:001xBetHome Total Goals FT · Under 31.9965.3%0.32%
11Bokelj vs SutjeskaMontenegro - First League18:001xBetCorrect Score FT · 3-250.002.6%0.01%
12Lindo FF vs FittjaSweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand13:001xBetTotal Goals FT · Under 1.754.4928.9%0.14%
13Hammarby Talang vs FBK KarlstadSweden - Ettan - Norra14:001xBetTotal Goals FT · Under 41.3993.4%0.32%
14Stromsgodset vs EgersundNorway - 1. Division15:001xBetHome Total Goals FT · Under 31.5583.8%0.32%
15Super Nova vs FK LiepajaLatvia - Virsliga13:00Pinnacle1X2 H1 · 14.0032.5%0.16%
16Deportivo Garcilaso vs UCV MoqueguaPeru - Primera División18:001xBetCorrect Score FT · 0-09.6013.5%0.06%
17Sheriff Tiraspol vs Dacia-BuiucaniMoldova - Super Liga17:001xBetTotal Goals H2 · Under 1.751.7673.8%0.32%
18Brattvåg vs LyseklosterNorway - 2. Division - Group 113:301xBetAsian Handicap FT · 2 +0.254.3529.8%0.14%
19RB Bragantino vs CorinthiansBrazil - Serie A21:30UnibetTotal Goals FT · Under 2.251.8271.3%0.32%
20FC Levadia Tallinn vs Nõmme UnitedEstonia - Meistriliiga16:001xBetAsian Handicap H1 · 1 -2.56.5519.8%0.08%
21Strommen vs RanheimNorway - 1. Division15:001xBetTotal Goals H2 · Under 1.52.5051.9%0.31%
22Riga Mariners vs Tukums IILatvia - 1. Liga14:00PinnacleTotal Goals H1 · Under 21.6578.7%0.32%
23Oriente Petrolero vs Universitario de VintoBolivia - Primera División23:301xBetTotal Goals FT · Under 2.752.1261.2%0.32%
24Vihren vs Chernomorets 1919 BurgasBulgaria - Second League15:00PinnacleHome Total Goals FT · Over 1.51.8869.0%0.32%
25Veres Rivne vs Dynamo KyivUkraine - Premier League15:001xBetAsian Handicap FT · 2 -1.51.9666.2%0.32%
26IFK Trelleborg vs Växjö NorraSweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland13:001xBetHome Total Goals FT · Under 21.4490.1%0.32%
27Vikingur Reykjavik vs IBV VestmannaeyjarIceland - Úrvalsdeild18:001xBetTotal Goals H1 · Under 1.252.1061.8%0.32%
28Riga vs Ogre UnitedLatvia - Virsliga15:001xBetTotal Goals H2 · Over 2.52.0363.9%0.32%
29Breidablik vs Valur ReykjavikIceland - Úrvalsdeild19:15PinnacleTotal Goals FT · Under 4.51.4887.6%0.32%
30Mladost Lucani vs CukarickiSerbia - Super Liga19:001xBetCorrect Score FT · 0-18.0016.2%0.07%
31KA Akureyri vs FH hafnarfjordurIceland - Úrvalsdeild18:001xBetHome Total Goals FT · Under 2.51.4092.6%0.32%
32Ypiranga-RS vs FlorestaBrazil - Serie C19:00PinnacleAsian Handicap FT · 2 +0.252.2657.4%0.32%
33Velká Bíteš vs Tatran BohuniceCzech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie D14:301xBetAway Total Goals FT · Under 0.53.3039.3%0.20%
34Novorizontino vs JuventudeBrazil - Serie B19:00PinnacleTotal Goals FT · Under 21.9267.5%0.32%
35Motherwell vs FalkirkScotland - Premiership14:001xBetTotal Goals H1 · Over 24.8526.7%0.12%
36Sogndal vs BryneNorway - 1. Division15:00UnibetBTTS FT · No2.7547.1%0.27%
37FBC Melgar vs FC CajamarcaPeru - Primera División20:30PinnacleTotal Goals FT · Over 3.52.3954.2%0.32%
38FC Porto vs AlvercaPortugal - Primeira Liga17:001xBet1X2 H1 · 29.7013.4%0.05%
39FK Tobol Kostanay vs KaisarKazakhstan - Premier League13:00PinnacleTotal Goals FT · Under 2.252.0762.6%0.32%
40Schöningen vs Eintracht NorderstedtGermany - Regionalliga - Nord13:001xBetAway Total Goals FT · Under 13.5836.2%0.18%
41OFK Beograd vs Železničar PančevoSerbia - Super Liga19:00PinnacleTotal Goals H1 · Under 12.0862.2%0.32%
42Haugesund vs RaufossNorway - 1. Division15:001xBetTotal Goals H1 · Under 1.252.4952.0%0.31%
43JS Hercules vs SJK-junioritFinland - Kakkonen - Lohko C15:001xBetHome Total Goals H1 · Under 11.5981.4%0.32%
44Chicago Red Stars W vs Bay FC WUSA - NWSL Women23:001xBetCorrect Score FT · 1-012.0010.8%0.04%
45Jezero vs Mladost DGMontenegro - First League18:001xBetTotal Goals H1 · Over 1.252.7646.9%0.26%
46Cruzeiro vs MirassolBrazil - Serie A14:00UnibetTotal Goals FT · Under 22.7047.9%0.27%
47Assyriska FF vs SollentunaSweden - Ettan - Norra16:001xBetAway Total Goals FT · Under 1.51.5881.8%0.32%
48Corinthians W vs Santos WBrazil - Brasileiro Women19:00UnibetHT/FT · X/X6.7519.1%0.08%
49Athletic Club vs CriciumaBrazil - Serie B14:00PinnacleHome Total Goals FT · Under 0.52.5550.7%0.30%
50Colegiales vs PatronatoArgentina - Primera Nacional18:00UnibetTotal Goals FT · Over 2.52.8545.3%0.25%
51Sokol Lanžhot vs Tatran VšechoviceCzech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie E14:301xBetTotal Goals H2 · Under 0.54.9026.4%0.12%
52Zulte Waregem vs GenkBelgium - Jupiler Pro League14:00UnibetTotal Goals FT · Under 2.751.8370.5%0.32%
53Maranhão vs BrusqueBrazil - Serie C21:30PinnacleAsian Handicap FT · 2 -0.53.3139.0%0.20%
54Stabæk II vs VågNorway - 3. Division - Girone 413:001xBetCorrect Score FT · 1-19.5013.6%0.05%
55Arlanda vs PiteåSweden - Ettan - Norra15:001xBetTotal Goals H2 · Under 1.51.9167.6%0.32%
56O'Higgins vs Deportes LimacheChile - Primera División19:00Pinnacle1X2 H1 · 24.0132.2%0.15%
57Borac Banja Luka vs VeležBosnia - Premijer Liga16:301xBetAsian Handicap H1 · 1 -13.0841.9%0.22%
58Spaeri vs Dinamo TbilisiGeorgia - Erovnuli Liga16:001xBetTotal Goals FT · Under 3.251.4290.8%0.32%
59Stjarnan vs KeflavikIceland - Úrvalsdeild18:001xBetTotal Goals FT · Under 4.751.3496.3%0.32%
60Kolbotn W vs Viking FK WNorway - 1. Division Women13:001xBetTotal Goals H1 · Under 12.6349.0%0.28%
61Colchagua vs Santiago CityChile - Segunda División20:001xBetAsian Handicap FT · 1 -26.9518.6%0.08%
62Moreirense vs SC BragaPortugal - Primeira Liga19:30PinnacleAsian Handicap FT · 1 +04.4029.3%0.13%
63Universitatea Craiova vs Arges PitestiRomania - Liga I18:30PinnacleHome Total Goals FT · Under 1.51.9167.5%0.32%
64Atlético San Luis W vs Tijuana WMexico - Liga MX Femenil22:001xBetHT/FT · X/X5.5523.2%0.10%
65Charleroi vs OH LeuvenBelgium - Jupiler Pro League14:001xBetHome Total Goals H2 · Under 11.5483.6%0.32%
66Austria Vienna vs Lask LinzAustria - Bundesliga17:001xBetCorrect Score H2 · 2-117.007.6%0.03%
67Groningen vs UtrechtNetherlands - Eredivisie12:301xBetTotal Goals FT · Under 1.753.3838.1%0.19%
68Vikingur Gota vs B68Faroe-Islands - Meistaradeildin14:00PinnacleAsian Handicap FT · 2 +1.751.8171.1%0.32%
69FC Astana vs OkzhetpesKazakhstan - Premier League13:001xBetHome Total Goals FT · Over 3.55.3024.3%0.11%
70São Paulo W vs RB Bragantino WBrazil - Brasileiro Women21:001xBetTotal Goals H1 · Over 11.8071.4%0.32%
71Wolfsberger AC vs Red Bull SalzburgAustria - Bundesliga15:001xBetTotal Goals FT · Under 1.256.4220.0%0.08%
72Atyrau vs AktobeKazakhstan - Premier League13:001xBetTotal Goals FT · Under 15.9021.8%0.09%
73Lech Poznan vs Piast GliwicePoland - Ekstraklasa15:30UnibetTotal Goals FT · Under 2.751.9167.2%0.32%
74Lillestrom vs RosenborgNorway - Eliteserien12:301xBetCorrect Score FT · 0-111.0011.7%0.04%
75Quilmes vs AlmagroArgentina - Primera Nacional20:001xBetTotal Goals FT · Under 2.251.6179.6%0.32%
76Žilina vs SkalicaSlovakia - Super Liga15:001xBetTotal Goals FT · Under 1.255.2024.6%0.11%
77Palmeiras vs InternacionalBrazil - Serie A19:00PinnacleAway Total Goals FT · Under 0.52.1260.4%0.32%
78Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Always ReadyBolivia - Primera División19:00UnibetTotal Goals FT · Under 3.51.6179.5%0.32%
79Völsungur vs HK KopavogurIceland - 1. Deild16:001xBetHome Total Goals FT · Under 0.53.6035.5%0.17%
80Kormákur / Hvöt vs Thróttur VogarIceland - 2. Deild16:001xBetAway Total Goals H1 · Under 0.51.7672.6%0.32%
81Real Potosí vs BloomingBolivia - Primera División21:151xBetTotal Goals FT · Under 31.5781.4%0.32%
82Defensor Sporting vs WanderersUruguay - Primera División - Apertura18:00PinnacleTotal Goals FT · Under 2.252.0562.3%0.32%
83Helges vs BollstanäsSweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand14:001xBetTotal Goals H1 · Under 1.51.8070.9%0.32%
84Los Andes vs Ferro Carril OesteArgentina - Primera Nacional17:301xBetTotal Goals H1 · Over 1.756.5519.4%0.08%
85Vojvodina vs Radnik SurdulicaSerbia - Super Liga18:001xBetTotal Goals H2 · Under 13.1840.0%0.20%
86San Lorenzo vs HuracanArgentina - Liga Profesional Argentina18:00PinnacleTotal Goals FT · Under 1.252.4950.9%0.28%
87Zamora FC vs Puerto CabelloVenezuela - Primera División20:001xBet1X2 H1 · 14.2429.9%0.13%
88FC jazz vs OLSFinland - Ykkönen15:30PinnacleTotal Goals H1 · Under 21.3394.9%0.32%
89Danubio vs CerroUruguay - Primera División - Apertura14:00PinnacleTotal Goals FT · Over 2.52.6048.4%0.25%
90Anderlecht vs RAAL La LouvièreBelgium - Jupiler Pro League16:301xBetHome Total Goals FT · Under 13.5635.3%0.16%
91Trofense vs VarzimPortugal - Liga 316:001xBetTotal Goals H2 · Under 11.9863.4%0.32%
92UN Kaerjeng 97 vs US HostertLuxembourg - National Division14:00PinnacleTotal Goals H1 · Under 12.3353.6%0.30%
93Deportes Copiapo vs San LuisChile - Primera B16:301xBetAsian Handicap FT · 1 -13.5834.9%0.15%
94Flamengo vs VitoriaBrazil - Serie A22:30PinnacleHome Total Goals FT · Under 1.53.3037.8%0.17%
95Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs FratriaBulgaria - Second League17:001xBetTotal Goals H2 · Under 12.2256.1%0.32%
96Oriental vs AtenasUruguay - Segunda División19:001xBetAway Total Goals FT · Over 25.3023.3%0.09%
97Municipal vs Cobán ImperialGuatemala - Liga Nacional23:001xBetBTTS FT · Yes2.3152.9%0.27%
98Rubin vs FC OrenburgRussia - Premier League17:30PinnacleTotal Goals FT · Under 22.2953.3%0.27%
99Trasandino vs Linares UnidoChile - Segunda División22:001xBetAsian Handicap FT · 2 -0.753.0839.6%0.17%
100ADR Jicaral vs AD SarchíCosta-Rica - Liga de Ascenso19:001xBetAway Total Goals FT · Under 0.52.2454.2%0.27%
101Ilirija vs DravinjaSlovenia - 2. SNL15:301xBetHT/FT · X/X5.0024.1%0.08%
102Heerenveen vs TwenteNetherlands - Eredivisie14:45PinnacleTotal Goals H1 · Under 0.753.4035.4%0.13%
103Yelimay Semey vs IrtyshKazakhstan - Premier League14:001xBetHome Total Goals FT · Over 3.510.0012.0%0.04%
104Delfin SC vs Orense SCEcuador - Liga Pro21:00PinnacleTotal Goals FT · Over 2.52.5347.5%0.21%
105Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia KrakowPoland - Ekstraklasa12:451xBetAway Total Goals FT · Under 12.0159.6%0.31%
106Cacahuatique vs Fuerte San FranciscoEl-Salvador - Primera Division21:00UnibetTotal Goals FT · Under 22.4348.8%0.21%
107Trujillanos FC vs Deportivo Tachira FCVenezuela - Primera División20:00PinnacleAsian Handicap FT · 2 -12.4747.8%0.19%
108La Equidad W vs Real Santander WColombia - Liga Femenina20:001xBetTotal Goals H2 · Under 12.4148.8%0.20%
109Raelingen vs RådeNorway - 3. Division - Girone 614:001xBet1X2 H1 · 14.8724.1%0.07%
110FC Gomel vs FC MinskBelarus - Premier League15:451xBet1X2 H1 · 25.1222.8%0.07%
111Varbergs BoIS FC vs SandvikenSweden - Superettan13:00PinnacleTotal Goals FT · Under 1.54.8424.1%0.07%
112Nautico Recife vs Atletico GoianienseBrazil - Serie B19:00UnibetTotal Goals FT · Under 22.5046.3%0.17%
113Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee UtdScotland - Premiership14:00PinnacleAsian Handicap FT · 1 -12.1952.6%0.20%
114Rangers vs HibernianScotland - Premiership15:00PinnacleTotal Goals FT · Over 4.54.2926.8%0.07%
115Banga vs Suduva MarijampoleLithuania - A Lyga15:45PinnacleTotal Goals FT · Over 2.52.3248.5%0.15%
116FC ST. Gallen vs FC LuzernSwitzerland - Super League14:301xBetTotal Goals H2 · Under 0.56.4017.5%0.03%
117FS Jelgava vs AudaLatvia - Virsliga13:001xBet1X2 H1 · 13.9627.8%0.05%
118Sportivo Carapeguá vs Fernando De La MoraParaguay - Division Intermedia13:00PinnacleTotal Goals FT · Over 2.51.8955.8%0.10%
119Ždírec nad Doubravou vs Sokol TasoviceCzech-Republic - 4. liga - Divizie D14:301xBet1X2 H1 · 12.4242.8%0.04%

ℹ Share of bankroll per bet: fractional Kelly from the model probability, capped per bet and per coupon. Kelly scales directly with the model probability, so on an uncalibrated line the stake is uncalibrated too. A dash means no bankroll was stored with the row.

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